Possible outcomes from altering the ether supply growth rate

These consequences described in the first section all make sense. #3 stands out in particular because this sector of the ecosystem is where the supply first lands, and because relates to a long-standing goal of reducing wealth concentration described in the White Paper and elsewhere.

One additional consequence that may be considered as very significant is the effect of ether supply and expectations about ether supply on capital formation.

Through the lens of Mankiw’s 2nd principle, it can be understood that an economy with a less inflationary currency reduces the opportunity cost of holding that currency. The same applies to the rates of bonds. This opportunity cost of capital can help us understand how seemingly abstract factors such as inflation and bond rates relate to investment in business expansion and, by extension, the entire rate of growth of an economy.

But this economy is not normal. The extreme price increases experienced by all major investment opportunities in the Ethereum ecosystem – including ether itself as denominated in fiat – has likely clouded the effect of ether supply on capital formation. But PoS may help us see this far more clearly. The very reliable opportunity posed to investors by staking may mean that they not only consider the return on staking vs. other opportunities, but also consider the ether supply growth rate, or lack thereof.

With PoS, the amount of funding that needs to go into security will be lower than it is in PoW, so you can argue that if bitcoin (and derivatives) can survive with a fixed supply on transaction fees only in a PoW regime, then so can ethereum in a PoS regime.

Are there measures of the effect of miner rewards in the economy, either direct via investments made, or indirect via the transfer of their ether to other investors via exchange? It would be very instructive to understand how similar to the banking system and its extension of credit this has become.

Another concern is that if we promote a hard norm about a supply cap… then we lose the ability to later increase issuance

This is an interesting effect which certain central banks appear to be concerned about, but not so much for psychological expectation reason. For example, much has been made of BoJ’s loss of monetary firepower at different times.

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