Endgame Staking Economics: A Case for Targeting

I believe this footnote addresses your question, indeed the burn may shift up the real yield, but that shift is constant across the whole real curves, so does not change the relative quantities and thus the arguments of the post.

Iā€™d like to share my perspective as an average Home staker to provide a more down-to-earth example :

If issuance approaches zero or goes negative, Iā€™ll continue staking out of conviction and also because I donā€™t want to make the ā€œeffortā€ to withdraw my validator. Most home stakers, like me, want to avoid unnecessary entries or exits of their validators. This benefits the network.

However, if negative issuance persists, Iā€™ll be forced to withdraw because itā€™s not sustainable for me in the long term (I will no longer have ETH at the end so itā€™s better to exit beforehand)ā€¦

This creates a re-entry barrier, necessitating the redeposit and setup of my validator again, an effort I wonā€™t undertake if the low APR remains. Iā€™m not a machine; I wonā€™t cyclically enter and exit, as it demands effort and entails risks. Iā€™ve sketched my stance on a graph to illustrate the gap between the my APR thresholds for exiting and re-entering. (The figures are quick approximations and vary among home stakers.)

APR

This simple graph demonstrates that if the APR falls significantly low, I will not consider re-entering if it persists in that range, effectively establishing a ā€˜no-return bufferā€™.
It suggests that pushing issuance toward zero or negative risks driving away home stakers not out of conviction but due to re-entry barriers.

However, I believe thereā€™s an equilibrium APR before reaching 100% stake. Solutions like MEV burn and reducing issuance seem simpler and quicker to achieve this equilibrium at a lower ETH staking ratio.
I donā€™t think itā€™s necessary to implement a complex targeting system, as I donā€™t believe (or hope) weā€™ll reach 100% of ETH staked. However, if implemented, I think it could cause side effects for home stakers.

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First of all, great job. I read most of this proposal very carefully, and I agree with most of the points brought up in it. I also took to social media as to support the proposal and to address some of the popular criticisms:

  • Some do simply not acknowledge the value of ETH as money: https://twitter.com/timdaub/status/1776243946282164648, or they question the seriousness of the proposal (https://twitter.com/timdaub/status/1776217596410343620), which I find incomprehensible.
  • Some of the criticism seems to be without substance: https://twitter.com/timdaub/status/1776250136680698018 or it misses the key points of the proposal, namely that LSTs challenge ETHā€™s money-ness: https://twitter.com/timdaub/status/1776248440495718635
  • There is a class of criticism that entirely misses the point as it assumes the SEC would monitor the internet to draw conclusions on whether ETH is a security based on what is written in this forum: https://twitter.com/JimmyRagosa/status/1774817554445299717 Even if this was the case, why would it matter when engineering the protocol and addressing its challenges outlined above? The SEC is not the primary customer weā€™re working towards to build the protocol.
  • Everyone who holds ETH should be more aware of how incredibly valuable it is for an asset to have a monetary premium. Educate yourselves here, for example On Monetary Premia | AIER. Everyone who has to pull 17 magic tricks a quarter to preserve their wealthā€™s value over time is intuitively aware of how valuable it is to JUST hold a true store of value. That should be the vision for being an ETH holder. Not to imitate the existing financial system where I have to cast 23 different spells on my fiat money such that it doesnā€™t insta depreciate, but where I can buy ETH and know that the networkā€™s productivity (that goes far beyond just staking) takes care of preserving the value.

Then, this aside, I picked two quotes from the article:

To the authors, I would emphasize immensely this part of the proposal, which I think is counterintuitive for many ETH and LST holders. If I understood correctly, then the punch line here is, in reality, that with more staked ETH receiving yield, ETH inflates more in absolute terms, which means holding ETH becomes even less economical.
I think printing a curve showing the number of staked ETH vs. how high absolute inflation is could help to explain this or further understanding. E.g., Iā€™d be interested in how much ETH is being printed when, e.g., 60M ETH is staked at 2% vs., e.g., 30M ETH at 3%.

I actually think a part of the requirement here should also be that ā€œholding raw ETH is simply like holding money,ā€ as to say that it should be straightforward to hold money and not require me to do 17 tricks to hold the actual money and not a derivative that is actually inflated away by someone who more sophisticated than me.

This, in turn, also means that we should see staking rewards merely as the counter good for providing a service and paying expenses for that service. And in that line of arguing, Iā€™d like to say: Motivationally, Iā€™m pretty sure that most validators already hold ETH for its money-ness or as an investment. ETH has also been a great investment, especially in a fiat currency environment where all value globally is rapidly inflated. So, we can hardly argue that we should pay ETH validators for the risk of holding >= 32 ETH. So then we actually pay them for an active internet connection, a computer, the amount of time they spend on maintenance, and the risk of participating in validating. And what is that cost? I doubt that it is, in reality, so high that barely anyone does it economically. I personally know of people whose non-technical family members also got a computer to stake ETH because it was apparently such easy money! WTF

If you think about how you have to put your fiat money into an ETF that then spends it on 500 US-based companies and has this incredible black-box complexity, all just to preserve the fiat moneyā€™s value over time, then this is the inverse of what we should be aiming for, and sadly, this is the direction weā€™ve been going towards. So I support this proposal! Make holding ETH economical and preserve its property of being money.

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For targeting staking ratios we should use a PID controller.

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GEB controller seems robust enough, is doing a great job in RAI and related forks. It intakes a target and sets the rates accordingly. Plus, itā€™s very well documented and in-prod tested, with community tweakings.

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Iā€™d like to know what other ideas were discussed and dismissed besides yield issuance. I think the community is focused on yield over new ideas, I think there are many options that are worth exploring as well.

What ideas do you have? Iā€™ll go first to spark some inspiration:

  • Reduce new validators. Further, reduce the limit to 1 new validator per 6.4-minute epoch. This could be done dynamically as the stake increases. If significantly reduced, it would make building a large node operator uneconomical due to the time needed to get validators online and larger staking pools end up with less yield as they share the yield with users ETH that is not yet staked, which gives home stakers a better yield option.

  • Do nothing. The market settles, and staking deposits settle down.

  • Enshrine an LST, control the community, and stop bad actors from controlling the protocol. This is a controversial option, given the investment and time that organizations have put into staking pools.

  • Dynamic max deposit amount. Research an acceptable amount of economic security and design around that. Price and volume deposited dynamically managed.

  • Randomized Yield: Implementing a system where rewards vary randomly between 1% and 6% could discourage professional node operations due to its unpredictability

  • Non-Yield Staking: Stake accumulation could be tied to gas fee usage instead of providing a yield. This might encourage home stakers but doesnā€™t incentivize broader participation.

  • Increase the gas fee to the deposit contract to prevent the economy from stacking up.

  • Correlated attester penalties: This aims to penalize big stakers; it would be interesting to model this. for more info see a post by Vitalik.

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Itā€™s an interesting topic, however there is something puzzling me and Iā€™m curious of hearing your thoughts.

It seems the main concern is around LST. However, by targeting a staking ratio, are you not going to exacerbate the preference for adopting a LST solution? What I mean is that, the way rewards are distributed to validators tend to follow skewed distributions - essentially, larger entities tend to earn more on a percentage basis. This is mainly due to the fact that larger entities are pooling rewards coming for long-tailed distributions. Thus in the end, it would always be more profitable to pool rewards, so joining a LST solution.

In other words, how can you be so sure that targeting a staking ratio doesnā€™t tend to make things worse?

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I think this is a solid observation. But, it is also important to consider that there may be other reasons to operate a node beyond economics, or that new technology may develop to make the model more economical. Generally this happens often, where new technology could improve the cost-efficiency of operations.

This I really agree with. But, I think you are right, though it may be controversial.

I like this idea a lot. The randomness could discourage professional node operations as you mentioned, which would certainly help decentralized the network. I think this idea is really innovative and could really improve things. Nice one.

Overall, nice post.

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