First I’ll briefly introduce the (as yet) undocumented Attack 3: Unstaked Hijack.
Here, the attacker buys blocks continuously and uses them to cause maximum harm and disruption with the intention of crashing the price of Ethereum and it’s tokens having shorted them at margin first.
The crucial point here is that (unlike a 51% attack) an attacker can buy complete and continuous control of block content in Ethereum without having any stake in it. This leaves the door wide open to attacks by external actors hostile to Ethereum.
I feel that the risks of full-block MEV auctions have been greatly understated, and that this in turn has distorted our view of consensus solutions.
In short, if Flashbots are right, MEV isn’t much of a problem and therefore content consensus solutions won’t work. If I’m right, MEV is an existential issue and therefore content consensus solutions can address it.
To show you what I mean, let’s use your figure of 0.1 Eth as the avg MEV per block, and assume the proposer gives away half of this to the set of 200,000 attesters as a bribe, giving a bribe per validator of 0.00000025 Eth per block.
Let’s say we have consensus rules similar to the one you proposed where attesters refuse to vote for a block that fails to include a transaction after a certain period of time. A ‘Bad’ actor breaks these rules, a ‘Good’ actor follows them.
Now let’s run the game, first with Flashbots MEV risk assumptions and then again with my MEV risk assumptions.
#1 Flashbots Risk Assumptions: MEV is mostly harmless, a superior way of doing arbs and liquidations, and improves network security by increasing miner rewards.
Payoffs for a bad proposal:
Proposer’s bribe 0.00000025
Attestation reward 0.00002 (given the low-risk assumptions above, it’s safe to assume the bad proposal gets voted for).
Attestation Payoff 0.00002025
The attesters back the bad proposal so:
Proposer Payoff 0.05 in MEV +gas +proposal rewards
(Outcome: consensus content failure)
#2 Pmcgoohan’s Risk Assumptions: MEV makes Ethereum too expensive for widespread adoption and will centralize the network around a monopolistic gatekeeper running an extortion economy punctuated by severe attacks from hostile, unstaked parties.
Let’s put a per-block figure on the risks I have so far identified:
Attacks 1 & 2: Centralized Gatekeeper Running CaaS. For passive holders, the risk here is a drag on the adoption of Ethereum and therefore Eth value. Let’s call it 25% over 2 years (personally I think it’s much higher). 6500 blocks per day x 365 days per year x 2 years = 4,745,000 blocks. A 25% loss in the value of 32 staked Eth is equivalent to 8 / 4,745,000 = -0.0000016 Eth per block.
Attack 3: Unstaked Hijack. Let’s say it takes 2 years before this attack takes place. An 80% loss in the value of staked Eth is equivalent to 25.6 / 4,745,000 = -0.0000053 Eth per block.
Payoffs for a bad proposal:
Proposer’s bribe 0.00000025
CaaS EV -0.0000016
Hijack attack EV -0.0000053
Attestation reward 0.0 (because of the above, it is now unlikely a bad proposal will be successful)
Attestation Payoff -0.0000117
The attesters no longer back the bad proposal so:
Proposer Payoff: 0 Eth (no gas, no MEV)
(Outcome: consensus content success)
Now things look a bit different. Assuming Eth at $4750, over 2 years CaaS costs attesters -$38,000 and the Hijack -$121,600 making a total loss of -$159,600 whereas the bribes make them only $5634.
The attesters have a negative long term expectation if they vote for bad proposals, and no juicy bribe that they can go out and spend today (a mere ~$0.0001 per block in fact).
So to answer your original question re: incentives for proposers to behave vs incentives for attesters to behave; it’s clear that attesters are playing a repeated game, but you could argue that proposers are playing a one round game. That chunk of MEV looks pretty tempting at around $237.50 a pop for the proposer compared to ~$0.0001 per block for the attester, and it only comes around once every few months.
But if you have enforced consensus, they still won’t do it, because proposers know that the attesters have a negative payoff in their repeated game and will vote against it.
Crucially, the risks of full-block MEV must be fully understood and (just as importantly) honestly communicated to validators and users for this to work.
In any case, it is surely vital that we understand the risks of full-block MEV auctions before doubling-down on them. The EF is usually meticulous about such risk assessments.
As far as this goes, I’m happy to be of service, but I’m not enough.